In the past two years, the global photovoltaic industry has ridden the wind under the background of the transformation of the energy structure, and the industrial scale and installed capacity growth rate have repeatedly reached new highs. TrendForce Consulting expects that the neutral global PV new installed capacity in 2024 is expected to be 474GW, an increase of 16% year-on-year, which is significantly slower than the growth rate of 59% in 2023.

From the perspective of the four major regional markets, the installed capacity demand in Asia and Europe has entered the adjustment stage and maintained stable growth. The significant recovery of installed demand in the United States will drive the overall market in the Americas to maintain a high growth rate. In Central and East Africa, due to the acceleration of the energy transition strategy, the price of superimposed components has fallen, and the construction of large-scale photovoltaic ground power stations in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other regions has accelerated. In the market segment, Chile, Saudi Arabia and Turkey growth rate performance is more impressive.

The growth rate is slowing down, and 474GW of new PV installations will be installed globally in 2024

Although affected by supply chain price fluctuations, complex economic environment and other factors, the scale of global PV manufacturing in 2023 still maintains a rapid expansion trend. Jibon Consulting expects that in 2023, the global PV installed capacity of 411GW, an increase of 59%; It is expected that 474GW of new installed capacity will be added in 2024, an increase of 16% year-on-year, and the growth rate of new installed capacity will slow down, which will return to rationality from high-speed growth.

Figure: Forecast of global PV installed capacity in 2024

From the installed capacity data of the four major regional markets, the Asia-Pacific region is the most prominent, leading the global PV market. After experiencing a period of rapid development in the Asia-Pacific region, the development of the photovoltaic market in mainstream countries has matured, and the overall growth rate will slow down in 24 years, and the new installed capacity is expected to reach 270GW.

Although Europe faces the gradual weakening of the urgency of installed capacity, European countries have significantly increased their long-term photovoltaic installed capacity targets in 23 years, and implemented a number of favorable policies, confirming that their determination to accelerate the energy transition remains unchanged. Jibang Consulting expects that the new installed capacity in Europe will reach 90GW in 24 years, which is expected to maintain steady growth for a long time. The Americas overall new installed capacity is expected to reach 87 GW, an increase of 33%, the main increase is still the United States. In the Central and East Africa market, the installed capacity demand of Saudi Arabia, South Africa and the United Arab Emirates will drive the overall high growth rate in the region, and the new installed capacity will reach 28 GW in 24 years.

Figure: Forecast of PV installed capacity in four major regional markets in 2024

Continue to lead, focusing on the two major photovoltaic markets in China and the United States

In the context of new energy transformation, each country has its own new energy blueprint or photovoltaic vision, and the market potential is huge. The following will focus on the development trend of the two major markets in China and the United States.

China: Centralized is expected to become the main increase in 24 years

Looking back 23 years, as the world's largest demand market, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity in the first three quarters reached 129 GW, an increase of nearly 50%, achieving rapid growth. From the perspective of quarterly installed data, the proportion of centralized installed capacity has been gradually approaching distributed. At present, the rush of the end of the year is still continuing, with the first batch of large base projects in Q4 completed grid connection, 23 years of centralized installed capacity is expected to exceed distributed.

Jibang Consulting expects that in 24 years, China's PV installed demand growth will slow sharply, new installed capacity of about 210 GW, an increase of 11%. From the perspective of sub-categories, with the gradual deepening of China's electricity reform process, the average electricity price decline is expected to be clear, and the grid-connected capacity allocated to household photovoltaic has been nearly exhausted, and the project economy has declined and the grid-connected control has become stricter, which will lead to the demand for household photovoltaic installed capacity entering a deep adjustment period in 24 years. Industrial and commercial PV is expected to maintain stable growth under the background of the peak-valley electricity price difference continuing to widen and the proportion of distribution and storage gradually increasing. In the centralized aspect, the installed capacity demand in the next two years will be carried out around the scenery big base project.

the United States: maintain a high growth rate, the new installed capacity is expected to reach 55GW

In the first half of 2023, the United States installed 11.8 GW of photovoltaic capacity, an increase of 37%. From the perspective of the two relatively large subcategories, household photovoltaic is positively affected by NEM2.0 grab orders, and the growth of installed demand will continue to Q3, and gradually weaken in Q4. In terms of large storage, the ground power station has been greatly improved by the supply chain problems, and the import volume of components has increased significantly in the first half of 23 years (mainly in namely and Southeast Asia), and the demand for supporting installed capacity has been repaired.

Because the construction of the grid infrastructure is still unable to keep up with the growth of electricity consumption, the United States still faces a large electricity deficit in the future. Therefore, under the expectation of high electricity demand, there is a rigid demand for photovoltaic installations in the United States. Jibon Consulting expects that the U.S. photovoltaic market as a whole will maintain a high growth rate in 24 years, and the new installed capacity is expected to reach 55 GW, an increase of 45%. In addition, the Southeast Asian tariff exemption period that ended in June 24 will effectively support the supply of components in the United States, and the ITC additional subsidy eligibility and process are gradually simplified and clear, which is expected to drive the United States to achieve a high increase in photovoltaic installed capacity in 24 years.

In addition, the global multinational deployment of photovoltaic power generation project demand is strong, after watching the two mainstream incremental countries, and then pay attention to the 24 years of installed capacity growth faster countries, such as Chile, Saudi Arabia, Turkey. Chile, due to the urgent need for energy transformation and rich light resources, is expected to grow by more than 40%. Saudi Arabia is due to the decline in component prices, the construction progress of the winning project has accelerated, and the demand has increased. Turkey has maintained a high growth rate due to a number of favorable policies, more local photovoltaic production capacity, and stable module supply.

In general, the growth rate of new photovoltaic installations in the world has slowed down in 24 years, returning to rational growth. At present, the shortage of power grid capacity and the problem of scenery consumption has become a key point restricting the photovoltaic demand in various countries to maintain a high growth, and the global photovoltaic installed potential can be further released after the completion of the stage upgrade of the power grid or the installed capacity of energy storage. In addition, some regions are facing an economic downturn, limited fiscal expenditure, or will affect the implementation of subsidy policies, and then inhibit the release of local installed demand.